Singapore’s economy is expected to grow by 3.2 per cent this year, according to 28 private sector economists polled in a quarterly survey of professional forecasters conducted by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and released today. This is unchanged from the previous survey in March.
The Singapore economy grew by 4.4 per cent in the first quarter of this year, which was higher than the median forecast of 3.8 per cent reported in the March survey.
The respondents expect Singapore’s economy to grow by 3.9 per cent in the second quarter. GDP growth for next year is projected to ease to 2.8 per cent.
The government’s forecast for 2018 GDP is 2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent. In 2017, GDP growth was 3.6 per cent.
MAS has observed in its report that the respondents expect manufacturing, finance and insurance to do relatively well this year, compared with sectors such as construction and wholesale and retail trade.
Commenting on the upside risks, MAS said, “The global tech cycle’s impact on the electronics sector, and external growth in general, continue to be the two other most commonly cited upside risks.”
The outlook on the property market also remains positive.
On downside risks, the report showed, the economists highlighted that the implementation of trade tariffs by the US and subsequent responses from the affected economies.
“Global trade protectionism continues to dominate the list of potential downsides,” MAS said, adding that 84 per cent of respondents expect the escalation of trade frictions to present a significant downside risk.
Meanwhile, the possibility of a slowdown in China from domestic stresses is comparatively more subdued, with 21 per cent of respondents highlighting it as a key risk, down from 53 per cent previously.